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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.