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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|