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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.